þ | No fee required. |
o | Fee computed on table below per Exchange Act Rule 14a-6(i)(4) and 0-11. |
(1) | Title of each class of securities to which transaction applies: |
(2) | Aggregate number of securities to which transaction applies: |
o | Check box if any part of the fee is offset as provided by Exchange Act Rule 0-11(a)(2) and identify the filing for which the offsetting fee was paid previously. Identify the previous filing by registration statement number, or the Form or Schedule and the date of its filing. |
1) | Amount Previously Paid: |
2) | Form, Schedule or Registration Statement No.: |
3) | Filing Party: |
4) | Date Filed: |
1) | Credit risk was increasing | ||
2) | Credit card issuers were facing rising cost of funding, liquidity risk and charge-off risk | ||
3) | The worse was likely yet to come, given that mortgage delinquencies would continue to escalate and housing prices would continue falling |
Credit and Financial Market Concerns December 10, 2007 Pershing Square Capital Management, L.P. |
Discussion Topics Current credit markets trends: Rising risk Credit Card Issuers: Tough road ahead Going forward: Why the worse may be yet to come 3 |
Current Credit Markets Trends: Rising Risk |
7 Corporate Spreads Have Widened Significantly ________________________________________________ Source: Bloomberg Investment grade corporate spreads, as measured by the Investment Grade CDX-IG-8 Index, have more than doubled since October, increasing from ~35bps to 86bps CDX-IG-8 Index 5-yr CDS Spread (June 2007 - December 2007) 86 bps |
9 Target CDS Spreads Have Tripled Since June ________________________________________________ Source: Bloomberg Target's CDS spreads have more than tripled since June (and doubled since early October) to nearly 50bps Target 5-yr CDS Spread (June 2007 - December 2007) 46 bps |
Financial Institution CDS Spreads Up Significantly Financial Index 5-yr CDS Spread (1) (June 2007 - December 2007) CDS spreads on large financial institutions with material credit card assets have significantly widened from ~20bps to ~100bps since June ________________________________________________ Source: Bloomberg. (1) Equal-weighted index of 5-yr CDS spreads for Capital One, Bank of America, Citigroup and JP Morgan. 96 bps 11 |
Credit Card Issuers: Tough Road Ahead |
Credit Card Issuers: Tough Road Ahead Cost of funding rising Credit card securitizations spreads have increased considerably over the last several months Liquidity risk has increased Access to securitization markets remains a top concern for issuers Charge-off risk is escalating Charge-offs are expected to rise from low levels in 2007 Stock prices and valuation multiples are falling 15 |
17 Source: Deutsche Bank Cost of Funding is Rising Rapidly Spreads for credit card securitizations have more than quadrupled in recent months, with 5-year AAA spreads widening more than 50bps to approximately 60bps AAA Credit Card ABS Fixed-rate Spreads to Swaps (bp) 5-year AAA spreads |
19 Liquidity Risks: Securitization Market Access During 2006 and 2005, Discover experienced a "temporary disruption in [its] ability to access the securitization markets. This disruption last approximately 5 months." - Discover Financial Services Prospectus, 6/1/07 "On November 26, CTC [Canadian Tire] issued a press release to say that it was significantly increasing its bank lines to give it additional funding flexibility. The release also included news that the company had chosen not to fund its maturing Glacier MTN through securitization, but through corporate borrowings. (Our understanding is the trust went to market with a securitization offering the previous week, but pulled it when the pricing got too high)." - CIBC Equity Research, 12/2/07 "Due to uneconomic terms in the current capital markets, we have elected not to securitize private student loans this quarter." - First Marblehead Press Release, 12/7/07 Several ABS Issuers have had trouble accessing the securitization markets on economic terms |
21 Liquidity Risks: Discover's Excess Cash on Hand Due to concerns regarding access to the securitization market, Discover maintained excess cash on hand (1) equal to approximately 17% of its gross receivables as of Q3 2007 ________________________________________________ (1) Represents cash and cash equivalents. $ in millions Discover Financial Corporation Balance Sheet Data: |
23 Liquidity Risks: Discover CFO Commentary "And at the end of August we held over $8 billion of cash liquidity on the balance sheet....We'll most likely continue to maintain this elevated level of cash liquidity on the balance sheet until we get a better sense as to when we will see more normalized market conditions return." Roy Guthrie CFO, Discover Financial Services Q3'07 Earnings Call |
Charge-Offs Are Expected to Increase Credit card charge-off rates are currently significantly below historical averages and at 10-year lows. With home prices falling and home equity refinancing markets tightening, consumer credit is expected to deteriorate and charge-offs are expected to rise Currently at 10- year historical lows ________________________________________________ Source: Morgan Stanley Research Bankruptcy Reform Act 2005 25 |
Retail Credit Card: Potentially More Charge-Off Risk "Borrowers who are feeling cash-pinched and who have come to rely on their credit cards to provide financing for their day-to-day expenses, will be more likely to keep a general-purpose card current than their retail card. Thus retail cards may be relegated to the lowest payment priority in the list of monthly obligations facing a cash-strapped borrower." Deutsche Bank ABS Research 2007 27 |
Credit Card Issuers: Relative Stock Performance Credit Card Issuers' Stock Prices Are Falling... 29 ________________________________________________ (1) Equal-weighted index of Discover, Advanta and Capital One. Source: Capital IQ. Credit card companies' stock prices have traded down more than 40% over the past year relative to the S&P 500 Credit card index (1) S&P 500 |
Credit Card Issuers: LTM P/E Multiples ....And Valuation Multiples Are Dropping 31 ________________________________________________ (1) Equal-weighted index of Discover, Advanta and Capital One. Source: Capital IQ. (1) Credit card issuers LTM P/E multiples have steadily declined since September, decreasing from a high of 13.7x to 7.4x 7.4x P/E |
Wall Street's Bearish View on Credit Card Companies Several research analysts have downgraded credit card companies in recent days due to bearish outlooks on the U.S. credit environment 33 |
Why the Worse May Be Yet to Come |
37 Subprime and Alt-A delinquencies continue to escalate Sources: LoanPerformance, Deutsche Bank Housing: We Are Still In The Early Innings |
39 Home prices are already falling with more stress still ahead Sources: S&P, Deutsche Bank Housing: We Are Still In The Early Innings |
41 Many months of loan resets in front of us We are here Sources: LoanPerformance, Deutsche Bank Housing: We Are Still In The Early Innings |
43 Foreclosures predicted to disrupt housing markets through mid-2010 Sources: LoanPerformance, Deutsche Bank Housing: We Are Still In The Early Innings Rate Resets Ultimate Foreclosures |