Portland, Oregon--(Newsfile Corp. - August 27, 2026) - Geomorphic AI ("Geomorphic" or the "Company"), an AI-enabled mineral intelligence and prospect-generation company, is pleased to announce the publication of a new white paper, "The Sovereign Turn in Critical Minerals: A Review of Selected Major Government Programs — the Instruments, the Transactions, What Is Working, What Is Not, and What the Next Phase Requires". Available at www.geomorphic.ai/news/#research.

The paper examines the rapid expansion of government intervention in critical minerals between January 2025 and August 2026, reviewing major programs, financing structures and transactions across the United States, European Union, Canada, Australia, Japan, Korea, the United Kingdom, India, China and major resource-holding jurisdictions.

Over the period reviewed, governments moved rapidly from publishing critical-mineral strategies to deploying capital through equity investments, loans, price guarantees, offtake agreements, strategic stockpiles, tax incentives and permitting reform.

Advanced-economy public finance commitments reached approximately US$65 billion in 2025, more than four times the 2023 level. At the same time, global critical-minerals investment declined 9% and exploration spending fell by more than 10%.

The paper argues that this divergence exposes the next major challenge for critical-minerals policy: capital is increasing faster than the technical capacity to determine where that capital should be deployed, while the exploration pipeline needed to create future supply continues to contract.

KEY FINDINGS

The white paper identifies five findings shaping the next phase of global critical-minerals policy:

1. Government financing tools have advanced faster than technical underwriting.
   Governments are now deploying increasingly sophisticated structures, including direct equity, convertible securities, contracts for difference, price floors, offtake agreements, concessional financing and strategic stockpiles. However, the technical capacity required to independently assess deposit quality, metallurgy, tenure and project risk has not expanded at the same pace.

2. Capital is concentrated further down the supply chain.
   Much of the government funding reviewed is directed toward processing, refining and manufacturing — sectors where supply concentration is most acute. While strategically important, these investments do not address the decline in exploration that ultimately determines the mineral supply available ten to fifteen years from now.

3. Announced commitments and deployed capital are not the same.
   The paper finds that letters of interest, conditional loan commitments and non-binding agreements are frequently described publicly as investments. Distinguishing between announced, committed and actually disbursed capital is increasingly important when assessing the scale and effectiveness of government support.

4. Long-term, executed agreements matter more than policy announcements.
   Transaction-specific mechanisms such as long-term offtake agreements and executed price support can materially improve project financeability. Broader policy proposals, however, may carry less financing value until they are legally durable and attached to specific transactions.

5. Stockpiles provide insurance, but do not create new supply.
   The United States, European Union, Japan, Korea and other allied governments are expanding or developing strategic stockpiles. While these programs can protect against disruptions, simultaneous purchases of existing production do not expand underlying supply and may increase competition for already-constrained material.

The paper argues that addressing these issues does not necessarily require another major wave of government spending. Instead, it recommends greater support for early-stage exploration, independent technical underwriting, consolidated reporting of government positions, stage-gated investment tied to technical milestones, durable long-term demand mechanisms and shared technical standards among allied funding agencies.

DIFFERENT JURISDICTIONS, DIFFERENT APPROACHES

The paper also compares the structure and effectiveness of major national programs.

Among the approaches reviewed, the United States stands out for the speed and breadth of its intervention, including equity, loans, offtake and price support. The European Union has focused heavily on legislated targets and accelerated permitting, while Canada maintains comparatively strong support for grassroots exploration.

Australia's rules-based production tax incentive is highlighted as a particularly disciplined approach to reducing discretionary project selection, while Japan's model benefits from decades of institutional continuity and technical capacity within JOGMEC.

The paper also examines emerging approaches in India, Saudi Arabia, Brazil, Indonesia, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Chile, Argentina, Kazakhstan, Ukraine and Greenland, as well as the growing role of multilateral initiatives including FORGE, the Quad Critical Minerals Initiative and the G7 Critical Minerals Resilience and Production Alliance.

THE NEXT PHASE: TECHNICAL SELECTION

Geomorphic AI Founder Mark Sumner said: "Governments have spent the last nineteen months proving that they can move significant amounts of capital into critical minerals. The next challenge is determining which projects actually deserve that capital.

"The funding mechanisms are becoming increasingly sophisticated, but capital by itself does not create geology. If exploration continues to decline and technical diligence cannot keep pace with the volume of transactions, we risk financing the same limited pool of known projects without building the discovery pipeline needed for the next decade.

"The next phase of critical-minerals policy is therefore as much a technical-selection problem as it is a capital problem."

WHERE GEOMORPHIC FITS

Geomorphic applies machine-assisted screening of geological, tenure, drilling and geochemical datasets together with experienced geological judgment to evaluate mineral assets and identify new opportunities.

The Company currently maintains active data and tenure capabilities across approximately 30 jurisdictions and provides source-traceable technical analysis covering deposit quality, resource credibility, metallurgical risk and tenure.

The white paper identifies several areas where this capability can support the emerging critical-minerals landscape, including independent technical underwriting, re-evaluation of existing government-backed project portfolios, verification of announced transactions and systematic origination of mineral opportunities in commodities where qualified Western supply remains limited.

As the paper concludes:

"Governments have spent nineteen months proving they can move capital into critical minerals. The next nineteen will be spent discovering how much of it was well spent."

The full white paper, including jurisdiction-by-jurisdiction analysis, landmark transactions, policy recommendations and supporting sources, is available at: www.geomorphic.ai/news/#research.

ABOUT GEOMORPHIC AI

Geomorphic AI is a prospect generator. Using systematic, data-driven screening of geological databases and historic datasets, the Company identifies overlooked mineral systems in Tier-1 jurisdictions, secures the ground, and compiles partner-ready exploration packages. Geomorphic advances projects through joint ventures, earn-in agreements, sales and other partnerships with operating companies that fund and execute exploration, while Geomorphic may retain a continuing interest.

TECHNICAL NOTES & SOURCES

The analysis summarized in this release is drawn from Geomorphic AI's August 2026 white paper, "The Sovereign Turn in Critical Minerals." The paper was prepared using publicly available information from primary government and corporate sources, including agencies and institutions in the United States, Canada, the European Union, Australia, Japan, Korea, India and Saudi Arabia, together with International Energy Agency analysis and selected secondary legal and consulting commentary where primary sources were unavailable. Figures are presented as reported at the dates cited in the white paper and have not been adjusted to a common currency or reporting date. Where applicable, the paper distinguishes between announced, conditional, committed and disbursed capital. Government programs, appropriations and transaction terms in the critical-minerals sector are evolving rapidly, and certain information may change following publication.

The full methodology, source notes and selected primary references are available in the white paper at: www.geomorphic.ai/news/#research.

FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS

This release contains forward-looking statements subject to risks and uncertainties, including exploration-permit, environmental-review and land-access timing; the availability and condition of archived core, pulps and records; re-assay, geophysical and drilling results; the interpretation and continuity of historical mineralisation; the relevance of nearby infrastructure and third-party properties; commodity prices; transaction outcomes; and future exploration results. Actual results may differ materially. Forward-looking statements are made as of the date of this release, and readers should not place undue reliance on them.

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