A recent article published in the NY Sun, entitled, "Nightmare Scenario for GOP unfolding as Trump Surges in Primary Polls, Plummets in General Favorability" and the subheading was "New Polling suggests Republicans Fear that President Trump will win the Nomination Only to Flop in the General are Justified."
Now full disclosure, I write a daily column for the New York Sun, which I happen to think is a terrific independent conservative online newspaper. Second, while I don't know the reporter, whose name is Russell Payne, I am told that he's an expert on polling and last year had a better track record than most in citing polls that did not show a GOP landslide.
Now, Mr. Payne for this article relies on an IPSOS and Reuters poll conducted between April 5 and 6 that unsurprisingly showed Mr. Trump to be the clear favorite for the GOP nomination. Then, he cited an ABC/IPSOS poll that found Former President Trump's overall approval ratings have dropped to a historic low with only 25% of respondents with a favorable view vs. 61% unfavorable.
The same poll found President Biden with a 34-48% split, favorable vs. unfavorable. So, neither of them are winning beauty contests at this point. Now, there are polls and there are polls. Favorability of course doesn't measure a head-to-head battle. There's a big difference. That said, if you go up on Real Clear Politics, you find an Economist/YouGov poll taken April 1-4 with 1,319 registered voters, margin of error +/-3 points that shows Trump 44%, Biden 42%.
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There's also a Rassmussen Reports poll taken March 30 to April 3 showing Trump up 7 against Biden, taken March 30 to April 3 among 971 likely voters with a 3 point margin of error as well and then there's a McLaughlin and Associates poll showing Trump 47% to Biden 43% taken April 1 with 1,000 likely voters. It should be noted that Donald Trump is a client of McLaughlin and Associates.
Now, there are all sorts of polls showing Mr. Trump pounding governor DeSantis by margins of some 30 points in the most recent taking. No surprise there. However, to go back to the New York Sun's Mr. Russell Payne, it is true that Donald Trump's favorables are worse than Joe Biden's.
Again, going back to the RCP Average Spread between March 12 and April 11 shows Mr. Trump's net favorability of -17.4% vs. Joe Biden's net favorability of -10.3%. They are both under water. That net is the net of favorable vs unfavorable. in case you were wondering. Now, this is all horse race stuff and I'm not really usually keen on political horse races because I'm an issues guy and as you all may know, I believe President Biden to be a practitioner of big-government socialism and left-wing social planning, which are policy principles that I strongly oppose.
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It's no surprise having worked for Mr. Trump as his NEC Director I support what I perceive to be Mr. Trump's advocacy of free market capitalism, most particularly slashing taxes and regulations. I believe Mr. Biden has taken a strong Trump economy and slammed it into stagflation and probably an impending recession. I believe Mr. Trump gave us the best economy in several generations. So those are my biases. As always, viewers may agree or disagree with me. I respect all of it.
I'd love to say that at least some of these polling numbers have something to do with economic policy. Perhaps, but at this stage probably not much. That debate is in front of us, but I will say, judging from all these political horse race polls, that the race most definitely ain't over yet.
This article is adapted from Larry Kudlow’s opening commentary on the April 12, 2023, edition of "Kudlow."
