Soybeans are trading with 5 to 14 cent gains so far on Monday. Futures saw weakness on Friday, as contracts were down 17 to 22 ¼ cents in the nearbys. January still managed a gain of 7 ½ cents on the week, as November expired at the close. Preliminary open interest was up 14,755 contracts on Friday, suggesting new selling interest. The cmdtyView national average Cash Bean price was 22 3/4 cents lower at $10.50 1/4. Soymeal futures fell $1.40 to $6 on the day, with December up $5.40 last week. Soy Oil futures were down 2 to 10 points across the board, with the weekly move at 47 points higher.
USDA’s release of the backlog of unreported large daily sales from during the shutdown showed 1.348 MMT. China was the buyer of just 332,000 MT of that, with 616,000 MT to Unknown destinations. Another 237,500 MT of soybean meal was sold to the Philippines. Actual weekly report data won’t be caught up until January 2. President Trump on Friday evening that China is in the process of buying US beans and he expects the buying to pick up before spring.
Crop Production data from Friday showed US soybean yield 0.5 bpa below the September report at 53 bpa. That took production 48 mbu lower to 4.253 bbu. Carryover from 2024/25 was down 14 mbu from the previous report to 316 mbu as per the September Grain Stocks. That, when combined with the production number, took supply 61 mbu lower to 2.59 bbu. The demand side saw exports down 50 mbu. That took ending stocks 10 mbu lower to 290 mbu.
On the World side, Brazil saw increased domestic used and increased exports, with Argentina seeing increased exports offsetting a drop to crush Ending stocks were 2 MMT lower to 121.99 MMT.
NOPA data will be released this morning, as traders are looking for October crush to total 209.52 mbu, with a wide range of 197.4 to 223.5 mbu. Soybean oil stocks are seen at 1.257 billion lbs, which would be up from 1.243 billion lbs at the end of September.
Brazil’s soybean crop is estimated at 71% planted as of Thursday according to AgRural, lagging the 80% from the same week last year.
Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $11.12 3/4, down 19 1/4 cents,
Nearby Cash was $10.50 1/4, down 22 3/4 cents,
Jan 26 Soybeans closed at $11.24 1/2, down 22 1/2 cents, currently up 14 cents
Mar 26 Soybeans closed at $11.36, down 20 3/4 cents, currently up 11 cents
On the date of publication, Austin Schroeder did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.
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