Online dating app Bumble (NASDAQ: BMBL) met Wall Streets revenue expectations in Q3 CY2025, but sales fell by 10% year on year to $246.2 million. On the other hand, next quarter’s revenue guidance of $220 million was less impressive, coming in 5.6% below analysts’ estimates. Its GAAP profit of $0.33 per share was in line with analysts’ consensus estimates.
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Bumble (BMBL) Q3 CY2025 Highlights:
- Revenue: $246.2 million vs analyst estimates of $245.1 million (10% year-on-year decline, in line)
- EPS (GAAP): $0.33 vs analyst estimates of $0.33 (in line)
- Adjusted EBITDA: $83.07 million vs analyst estimates of $81.07 million (33.7% margin, 2.5% beat)
- Revenue Guidance for Q4 CY2025 is $220 million at the midpoint, below analyst estimates of $233 million
- EBITDA guidance for Q4 CY2025 is $63 million at the midpoint, below analyst estimates of $74.62 million
- Operating Margin: 25.9%, up from -306% in the same quarter last year
- Free Cash Flow Margin: 30%, up from 27.3% in the previous quarter
- Paying Users: 3.57 million, down 680,600 year on year
- Market Capitalization: $591.3 million
Company Overview
Started by the co-founder of Tinder, Whitney Wolfe Herd, Bumble (NASDAQ: BMBL) is a leading dating app built with women at the center.
Revenue Growth
Examining a company’s long-term performance can provide clues about its quality. Any business can put up a good quarter or two, but many enduring ones grow for years. Unfortunately, Bumble’s 4.9% annualized revenue growth over the last three years was sluggish. This fell short of our benchmark for the consumer internet sector and is a poor baseline for our analysis.
This quarter, Bumble reported a rather uninspiring 10% year-on-year revenue decline to $246.2 million of revenue, in line with Wall Street’s estimates. Company management is currently guiding for a 15.9% year-on-year decline in sales next quarter.
Looking further ahead, sell-side analysts expect revenue to decline by 8.6% over the next 12 months, a deceleration versus the last three years. This projection is underwhelming and suggests its products and services will see some demand headwinds.
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Paying Users
Buyer Growth
As a subscription-based app, Bumble generates revenue growth by expanding both its subscriber base and the amount each subscriber spends over time.
Over the last two years, Bumble’s paying users, a key performance metric for the company, increased by 4.8% annually to 3.57 million in the latest quarter. This growth rate lags behind the hottest consumer internet applications. If Bumble wants to accelerate growth, it likely needs to engage users more effectively with its existing offerings or innovate with new products. 
Unfortunately, Bumble’s paying users decreased by 680,600 in Q3, a 16% drop since last year. The quarterly print was lower than its two-year result, suggesting its new initiatives aren’t moving the needle for buyers yet.
Revenue Per Buyer
Average revenue per buyer (ARPB) is a critical metric to track because it measures how much the average buyer spends. ARPB is also a key indicator of how valuable its buyers are (and can be over time).
Bumble’s ARPB fell over the last two years, averaging 3.9% annual declines. This isn’t great when combined with its weaker paying users performance. If Bumble tries boosting ARPB by taking a more aggressive approach to monetization, it’s unclear whether buyer growth would be sustainable. 
This quarter, Bumble’s ARPB clocked in at $22.64. It grew by 6.9% year on year, faster than its paying users.
Key Takeaways from Bumble’s Q3 Results
It was encouraging to see Bumble beat analysts’ EBITDA expectations this quarter. On the other hand, its number of buyers declined and its number of paying users fell short of Wall Street’s estimates. Looking ahead, Q4 guidance for both revenue and EBITDA came in below expectations. Overall, this was a softer quarter. The stock traded down 7.8% to $4.99 immediately following the results.
The latest quarter from Bumble’s wasn’t that good. One earnings report doesn’t define a company’s quality, though, so let’s explore whether the stock is a buy at the current price. What happened in the latest quarter matters, but not as much as longer-term business quality and valuation, when deciding whether to invest in this stock. We cover that in our actionable full research report which you can read here, it’s free for active Edge members.
