What Happened?
Shares of biotechnology company Moderna (NASDAQ: MRNA) jumped 6.4% in the afternoon session after a major long-term study from France indicated that its COVID-19 vaccine was safe and effective.
The nationwide study, which was the first of its kind to look at long-term risk, analyzed data from approximately 28 million people. Researchers found that individuals who received the Moderna or Pfizer vaccine had a roughly 75% lower risk of dying from COVID compared to those who were unvaccinated. The study also revealed a 25% lower risk of death from any cause for the vaccinated group. These results provided strong evidence for the long-term safety of the mRNA vaccines, reassuring investors about the company's key product.
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What Is The Market Telling Us
Moderna’s shares are extremely volatile and have had 52 moves greater than 5% over the last year. In that context, today’s move indicates the market considers this news meaningful but not something that would fundamentally change its perception of the business.
The previous big move we wrote about was 14 days ago when the stock gained 5.1% on the news that comments from a key Federal Reserve official bolstered hopes for an interest rate cut. New York Federal Reserve President John Williams stated he sees “room for a further adjustment” in the near term, sparking a significant market rally. Following his remarks, the probability of the central bank cutting rates at its December meeting jumped from 39% to over 73%, according to the CME FedWatch tool. This positive sentiment provided relief to markets amid concerns over high valuations, particularly in AI-related stocks.
Moderna is down 34.5% since the beginning of the year, and at $27.52 per share, it is trading 42.1% below its 52-week high of $47.53 from January 2025. Investors who bought $1,000 worth of Moderna’s shares 5 years ago would now be looking at an investment worth $172.51.
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