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GoodRx (GDRX): Buy, Sell, or Hold Post Q1 Earnings?

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GDRX Cover Image

GoodRx has had an impressive run over the past six months as its shares have beaten the S&P 500 by 13.1%. The stock now trades at $3.14, marking a 21.5% gain. This was partly thanks to its solid quarterly results, and the performance may have investors wondering how to approach the situation.

Is there a buying opportunity in GoodRx, or does it present a risk to your portfolio? Check out our in-depth research report to see what our analysts have to say, it’s free.

Why Do We Think GoodRx Will Underperform?

We’re glad investors have benefited from the price increase, but we’re cautious about GoodRx. Here are three reasons why GDRX doesn’t excite us, plus one stock we’d rather own.

1. Long-Term Revenue Growth Disappoints

Reviewing a company’s long-term sales performance reveals insights into its quality. Any business can put up a good quarter or two, but the best consistently grow over the long haul. Over the last five years, GoodRx grew its sales at a mediocre 6.4% compounded annual growth rate. This was below our standard for the healthcare sector.

GoodRx Quarterly Revenue

2. Fewer Distribution Channels Limit Its Ceiling

Larger companies benefit from economies of scale, where fixed costs like infrastructure, technology, and administration are spread over a higher volume of goods or services, reducing the cost per unit. Scale can also lead to bargaining power with suppliers, greater brand recognition, and more investment firepower. A virtuous cycle can ensue if a scaled company plays its cards right.

With just $787.9 million in revenue over the past 12 months, GoodRx is a small company in an industry where scale matters. This makes it difficult to build trust with customers because healthcare is heavily regulated, complex, and resource-intensive.

3. Previous Growth Initiatives Have Lost Money

Growth gives us insight into a company’s long-term potential, but how capital-efficient was that growth? Enter ROIC, a metric showing how much operating profit a company generates relative to the money it has raised (debt and equity).

GoodRx’s five-year average ROIC was negative 1%, meaning management lost money while trying to expand the business. Investors are likely hoping for a change soon.

GoodRx Trailing 12-Month Return On Invested Capital

Final Judgment

We see the value of companies making people healthier, but in the case of GoodRx, we’re out. With its shares topping the market in recent months, the stock trades at 9.7× forward P/E (or $3.14 per share). While this valuation is optically cheap, the potential downside is huge given its shaky fundamentals. There are better investments elsewhere. Let us point you toward a dominant aerospace business that has perfected its M&A strategy.

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