Wall Street has issued downbeat forecasts for the stocks in this article. These predictions are rare - financial institutions typically hesitate to say bad things about a company because it can jeopardize their other revenue-generating business lines like M&A advisory.
At StockStory, we look beyond the headlines with our independent analysis to determine whether these bearish calls are justified. Keeping that in mind, here is one stock where Wall Street’s pessimism is creating a buying opportunity and two where the skepticism is well-placed.
Two Stocks to Sell:
Baldwin Insurance Group (BWIN)
Consensus Price Target: $31 (16.1% implied return)
Rebranded from BRP Group in May 2024, Baldwin Insurance Group (NASDAQ: BWIN) is an independent insurance distribution company that provides tailored insurance, risk management, and employee benefits solutions to businesses and individuals.
Why Do We Think Twice About BWIN?
- Efficiency has decreased over the last five years as its adjusted operating margin fell by 8.2 percentage points
- Ability to fund investments or reward shareholders with increased buybacks or dividends is restricted by its weak free cash flow margin of -1% for the last five years
- 6× net-debt-to-EBITDA ratio makes lenders less willing to extend additional capital, potentially necessitating dilutive equity offerings
Baldwin Insurance Group is trading at $26.70 per share, or 12.2x forward P/E. If you’re considering BWIN for your portfolio, see our FREE research report to learn more.
Ball (BALL)
Consensus Price Target: $71.14 (8.9% implied return)
Started with a $200 loan in 1880, Ball (NYSE: BALL) manufactures aluminum packaging for beverages, personal care, and household products as well as aerospace systems and other technologies.
Why Are We Cautious About BALL?
- Flat sales over the last two years suggest it must find different ways to grow during this cycle
- High input costs result in an inferior gross margin of 21.3% that must be offset through higher volumes
- Lacking free cash flow generation means it has few chances to reinvest for growth, repurchase shares, or distribute capital
Ball’s stock price of $65.35 implies a valuation ratio of 16.1x forward P/E. To fully understand why you should be careful with BALL, check out our full research report (it’s free).
One Stock to Buy:
Howmet (HWM)
Consensus Price Target: $312.93 (11.2% implied return)
Inventing the first forged aluminum truck wheel, Howmet (NYSE: HWM) specializes in lightweight metals engineering and manufacturing multi-material components used in vehicles.
Why Are We Bullish on HWM?
- Impressive 12.3% annual revenue growth over the last five years indicates it’s winning market share this cycle
- Share repurchases have amplified shareholder returns as its annual earnings per share growth of 43.7% exceeded its revenue gains over the last two years
- Free cash flow margin increased by 13.2 percentage points over the last five years, giving the company more capital to invest or return to shareholders
At $281.35 per share, Howmet trades at 51.7x forward P/E. Is now the time to initiate a position? See for yourself in our full research report, it’s free.
Stocks We Like Even More
ALSO WORTH WATCHING: Top 5 Momentum Stocks. The best time to own a great stock is when the market is finally noticing it. These aren’t just high-quality businesses. Something is happening with them right now. Elite fundamentals meet near-term momentum — both boxes checked at the same time.
Find out which stocks our AI platform is flagging this week. See this week’s Strong Momentum stocks — FREE. Get Our Strong Momentum Stocks for Free HERE.
Stocks that made our list in 2020 include now familiar names such as Nvidia (+1,460% between June 2020 and June 2025) as well as under-the-radar businesses like the once-micro-cap company Tecnoglass (+1,552% between June 2020 and June 2025). Find your next big winner with StockStory today.
