Pacific Northwest Firm Refutes Skepticism Regarding Further Market Growth and Offers Perspective Around New Tax Rules

Ferguson Wellman Capital Management, a 50-year-old investment firm with broad employee ownership, is presenting its 2026 Outlook to clients through a 13-city tour in Western states. Ferguson Wellman has also released two of its resources: 2026 Outlook and Insights and 2026 Wealth Planning Guide.

“Investors faced plenty of noise in 2025: tariff uncertainty, the longest government shutdown in U.S. history and a Fed easing cycle that disrupted markets,” said George Hosfield, CFA, Ferguson Wellman’s chief investment officer. “Three years ago, the S&P 500 traded at a price-to-earnings multiple of 17x; today it trades at more than 22x. This high-expectation market is being driven by a list of increasingly expensive technology titans. Against this backdrop, investors are asking if a fourth consecutive year of positive returns is attainable. We believe this ‘mission impossible’ is possible, even probable, based on the data we’re seeing.”

Can Investors Expect a Fourth Consecutive Year of Growth in 2026?

There are four obstacles skeptics cite regarding market outcome in 2026. On the contrary, we believe growth is attainable.

#1: Is the Consumer Tapped Out?

• While sentiment surveys remain historically poor, households continue to display not just a willingness to spend, but ample capacity too. Consumers are set to receive fiscal stimulus in 2026, which we believe will provide a tailwind to disposable income.

#2: Is the Fed Behind the Curve?

• We don’t think so. The Fed has successfully balanced its dual mandate of price stability and full employment. Since tariffs were enacted, monetary policy has been on a knife-edge. Tariffs are inherently inflationary, placing the Fed in a difficult position. They’ve remained cautious about inflationary pressures and no doubt, patience was a prerequisite for stability.

#3: Is AI a Bubble About to Burst?

• Don’t mistake strong performance for a bubble. Unlike the speculative mania of the dotcom era in 2000, today’s leaders are cash-generating giants. Current infrastructure expenditures as a percentage of GDP are lower than during past booms, and crucially, spending is primarily funded by massive internal cash flows rather than debt. This AI cycle continues to be driven by profit growth that we believe will continue.

#4: Is the Stock Market Overvalued?

• With the S&P 500 trading at over 22x forward earnings, sticker shock is understandable. Yet, we believe these levels are justified. The bulk of the market’s gains have come from earnings growth rather than multiple expansion. For 2026, consensus expectations are for S&P 500 earnings to grow by 15%. Drivers of this growth are broadening to other companies outside the Magnificent Eight (we include Broadcom). A premium multiple is warranted given that 30% of the index’s profits are derived from eight companies delivering explosive, secular growth.

“Maintaining perspective and balance is key in investing. While we are not anticipating a 2026 recession, we did recently find it prudent to realize some profits and reduce exposure to a possible market correction. We don’t believe the AI boom has yet run its course, but we have modestly reduced our weight in the sector following very strong returns,” said Peter Jones, CFA, executive vice president and member of Ferguson Welman’s investment policy committee.

“We increased bond exposure, believing current yields will provide insurance if equity markets suffer a correction. We enter 2026 with the most conservative recommended asset allocation in over a decade, carrying a slight overweight to bonds and underweights to small-cap equities, international equities and alternatives. While the market is vulnerable to a correction, fiscal and monetary policy alongside broadening earnings lead us to expect a positive return in 2026, albeit at a more moderate level,” said Brad Houle, CFA, principal and investment policy committee member.

Guiding Clients on Tax-Efficient Wealth Planning in 2026

The Tax Act of 2025—commonly referred to as the One Big Beautiful Bill Act—brings greater continuity to the tax landscape heading into 2026, with important implications for income, charitable giving, education and estate planning.

“Perhaps the most significant outcome of the Tax Act of 2025 is what it prevents: a broad-based increase in income taxes by continuing existing tax rates, bracket and the standard deduction,” said Samantha Pahlow, CTFA, AWMA^®, wealth management chair at Ferguson Wellman. “That stability helps keep more dollars in the hands of taxpayers at a time when consumers and families are still contending with the effects of recent inflation.”

The Tax Act introduces several new provisions that intersect with wealth planning goals such as tax efficiency, charitable giving, education funding and multigenerational planning. Here are three examples:

#1: Expanded deductions and increased SALT (state and local tax) deduction

• Beginning in 2026, expanded, temporary deductions apply to certain forms of income, including tips and overtime pay, subject to income thresholds. The legislation also increases the state and local tax (SALT) deduction limit for households earning under approximately $500,000, providing relief for many middle- and upper-middle-income families in states with high local taxes.

#2: Charitable deduction rule changes

• The Act includes several updates affecting charitable giving. While a new cap limits the value of itemized deductions for higher-income taxpayers, the ability to deduct cash contributions to public charities up to 60% of adjusted gross income was made permanent, continuing to support charitable giving as part of thoughtful tax planning. The Act also introduces a modest adjusted gross income floor for charitable deductions, which may slightly reduce the deductible amount for some taxpayers but is not expected to materially alter most giving strategies.
• A new above-the-line deduction allows non-itemizing taxpayers to deduct up to $1,000 in cash contributions to qualifying operating charities, extending charitable tax benefits to households that claim the standard deduction

#3: Enhanced flexibility for college savings and multigenerational wealth planning

• New updates to 529 education savings plan rules expand flexibility in how and when funds may be used. These changes build on prior legislation and create new pathways for families to better align education savings funds with evolving needs and to integrate education planning across multiple stages of life.
• For families previously concerned about looming federal estate tax exposure, the Act also extended the lifetime federal estate tax exemption, which is $15 million per person in 2026. This provides breathing room for families developing multigenerational wealth transfer plans.

About Ferguson Wellman Capital Management

Ferguson Wellman is an employee-owned investment advisory firm founded in 1975. The firm manages $10.6 billion for 1,085 individual and institutional clients, offering customized investment portfolios and holistic wealth planning strategies starting at $4 million. Ferguson Wellman has two divisions: West Bearing Investments for clients with $1 million investable assets and our private family office, Octavia Group, for clients with assets starting at $10 million. For more information, visit fergusonwellman.com (data as of December 31, 2025)



Ferguson Wellman was recognized in 2025 by:

− Barron’s “Top 100 RIA Firms” ranking. #75 of 100 companies (July 1, 2024 - June 30, 2025)

− CNBC “Financial Advisor 100” ranking. #12 of 100 companies (April 1, 2024 - May 31, 2025)

− Forbes “Top RIA Firms” ranking. #43 of 250 companies (January 1, 2024 - December 31, 2024)



Visit https://www.fergusonwellman.com/awards for our awards and rankings disclosures. These rankings may not be representative of any one client’s experience, are not endorsements and are not indicative of Ferguson Wellman’s future performance. Ferguson Wellman did not pay a fee to participate, but the firm may pay a licensing fee to use their corporate logos on marketing materials.

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