J.D. Power-GlobalData Automotive Forecast November 2024

November New-Vehicle Sales Expected to Surge to 16.5M SAAR; Consumer Spending to Reach Highest Level Ever for November

J.D. Power:

The Total Sales Forecast

Total new-vehicle sales for November 2024, including retail and non-retail transactions, are projected to reach 1,361,200, a 6.7% increase from November 2023 on a selling day adjusted basis, according to a joint forecast from J.D. Power and GlobalData. November 2024 has 26 selling days, one more than November 2023. Comparing the same sales volume without adjusting for the number of selling days translates to an increase of 11.0% from 2023.

The seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) for total new-vehicle sales is expected to be 16.5 million units, up 1.2 million units from November 2023.

The Retail Sales Forecast

New-vehicle retail sales for November 2024 are expected to increase from a year ago. Retail sales of new vehicles are expected to reach 1,153,100, a 10.1% increase from November 2023 when adjusting for selling days. Comparing the same sales volume without adjusting for the number of selling days translates to an increase of 14.5% from 2023.

The Takeaways

Thomas King, president, data and analytics division at J.D. Power:

“November's results highlight strong sales performance, driven by rising inventory levels for certain brands and deeper discounts from both manufacturers and retailers. J.D. Power anticipates that consumers will spend nearly $50 billion on new vehicles this month, representing a 13.7% increase from a year ago and setting a new record for the month of November.

“Retail inventory is projected to be 2.1 million units, a 5.4% increase from October and a 29.7% increase from November 2023. Rising inventory levels are leading to deeper discounts from both manufacturers and retailers. However, inventory availability remains uneven across brands and models, with some high-volume vehicles still facing shortages.”

The average retail transaction price for new vehicles has decreased slightly from a year ago, driven by higher manufacturer incentives and larger retailer discounts, offset by changes in the mix of vehicles being sold. Transaction prices are trending towards $45,471—down $150 or 0.3%—from November 2023. The combination of considerably higher retail sales and slightly lower transaction prices means that buyers are on track to spend nearly $49.8 billion on new vehicles this month—13.7% higher than November 2023, and the highest November on record.

“Total retailer profit per unit—which includes vehicles gross plus finance and insurance income—is expected to be $2,276, down 21.2% from November 2023. The decline in profits is primarily driven by rising inventory levels, with fewer vehicles selling above the manufacturer's suggested retail price (MSRP). Thus far in November, only 11.6% of new vehicles have been sold above MSRP, which is down from 22.0% in November 2023.”

Total aggregate retailer profit from new-vehicle sales for this month is projected to be $2.5 billion, down 10.1% from November 2023.

“With increased inventory, fewer vehicles are being pre-sold by retailers, allowing more shoppers to purchase directly from dealer lots. J.D. Power forecasts that 29.4% of vehicles will sell within 10 days of arriving at the dealership, down from a peak of 58% in March 2022. The average time a new vehicle remains in the dealer's possession before sale is expected to be 52 days, up from 34 days a year ago.”

Manufacturer discounts are continuing to increase. The average incentive spend per vehicle is expected to grow 42.3% from November 2023 and is on track to reach $3,291. Expressed as a percentage of MSRP, incentive spending is currently at 6.5%, an increase of 1.8 percentage points from a year ago. Spending increased by $174 per unit from October 2024.

“One of the drivers of higher incentive spending from a year ago is the increased availability of discounting of lease payments. This month, leasing is expected to account for 23% of retail sales, up from 22% in November 2023.

“While attractive lease offers are driving an increase in the lease mix, the industry continues to contend with the lingering impact of reduced leasing activity from three years ago. The number of leases set to expire this November is down 14% compared with October and 35.9% lower than in November 2023. With fewer leases maturing, there are less opportunities to drive sales.

“Average monthly finance payments this month are on pace to be $745, up $20 from November 2023. The average interest rate for new-vehicle loans is expected to be 6.45%, down 71 basis points from a year ago. Monthly payments increasing is a result of a drop in trade-in equity, even though transaction prices and interest rates are falling.”

So far in November, average used-vehicle retail prices are $28,621, down $294 (-1.0%) from a year ago. The decline in used-vehicle values is translating to lower trade-in equity for owners, now trending towards $8,043, which is down $540 from a year ago.

“As the year draws to a close, the positive trends observed in November are expected to persist. Gradual improvements in more affordable vehicle availability are likely to sustain the momentum of new-vehicle sales, while transaction prices and profitability are projected to moderate slightly. Despite challenges such as stubbornly high interest rates and declining used-vehicle values, the overall health of the new-vehicle market remains strong. Although profit per unit is decreasing, higher sales volumes and enhanced leasing activity reflect resilient consumer demand. These trends position the industry for a solid finish to the year while continuing to adapt to evolving market dynamics.”

Sales & SAAR Comparison

The Details

• The average new-vehicle retail transaction price in November is expected to reach $45,471, down $150 from November 2023. The high for any month—$47,329—was set in December 2022.
• Average incentive spending per unit in November is expected to reach $3,291, up $978 from November 2023. Spending as a percentage of the average MSRP is expected to increase to 6.5%, up 1.8 percentage points from November 2023.
• Average incentive spending per unit on trucks/SUVs in November is expected to be $3,431, up $988 from a year ago, while the average spending on cars is expected to be $2,645, up $881 from a year ago.
• Retail buyers are on pace to spend $49.8 billion on new vehicles, up $6.0 billion from November 2023.
• Trucks/SUVs are on pace to account for 81.5% of new-vehicle retail sales in November.
• Fleet sales are expected to total 208,108 units in November, down 8.6% from November 2023. Fleet volume is expected to account for 15.3% of total light-vehicle sales, down 2.6 percentage points from a year ago.
• Average interest rates for new-vehicle loans are expected to be 6.45%, down 71 basis points from a year ago.

EV Outlook

Elizabeth Krear, vice president, electric vehicle practice at J.D. Power:

“Information plays a pivotal role in shaping EV shopper consideration, especially when it comes to incentives. There’s a direct correlation between the understanding of EV incentives and the likelihood of new-vehicle shoppers willing to consider an EV. A notable 41% of new-vehicle shoppers say they don’t have a good understanding of EV incentives. Only 5% of new-vehicle shoppers are ‘very likely’ to consider an EV when they have minimal understanding of EV incentives. This percentage rises significantly to 56% when they have a strong understanding of EV incentives.

“Additionally, tax credits/incentives is among the top three reasons people purchased an EV. Among buyers of premium EVs, 64% say such credits and incentives is a top reason for purchasing their EV, while among buyers of mass market EVs, it’s 49%.

“Federal incentives were always supposed to be temporary. How long ‘temporary’ is, is the key point here. If the incentives go away, it will negatively affect sales in the short term. The growth this year is from new products hitting the market at lower prices and lower trim mixes. Bouncing back may depend on manufacturer incentives and new-model introductions that appeal to shoppers.”

Global Sales Outlook

Jeff Schuster, vice president of research, automotive at GlobalData:

“The global light-vehicle selling rate surged in October to 93 million units, the highest level since August 2023. Volume increased by 5.7%, snapping the four-month streak of declining year-over-year volume. Year-to-date volume is 0.5% higher than in 2023, as October slightly outperformed expectations.

“Global sales experienced a resurgence across most markets. Strong performers in October include Eastern Europe (+14%), North America (+12%) and South America (+15%). Sales in China were up 5%, but that was pulled down by light commercial vehicles, which were down by double digits. Western Europe was the drag for the month, flat from a year ago.

“The acceleration of volume is expected to continue in November, with the selling rate projected to be in the range of 90-95 million units. Global volume is expected to increase 5% on strength in China as the scrappage incentive takes hold. In addition, double-digit growth is projected in North America and Brazil, while Western Europe remains in negative growth for the month.

“There continues to be a level of risk with vehicle demand in the fourth quarter, but the increase in October has eased some of the concern. The 2024 forecast is holding at 88.0 million units, an increase of 1.5% from 2023, ending downward revisions to the outlook that occupied the past few months. Autos are poised for continued growth in 2025 as conditions improve in key markets. Light vehicles are projected to increase to 90.6 million units, an increase of 2.7% from 2024.”

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