The price action in Broadcom (NASDAQ: AVGO) and other semiconductor companies has been trending lower over the past quarter or two but, in the case of Broadcom at least, that trend appears to be over. The downtrend was driven in large part by institutional selling, along with fears of a slowing market, but the fears have been allayed and institutional selling should begin to let up. The institutions have been net sellers for the last two quarters but buying has been at multi-year highs as well, suggesting rotation more than anything else.
The analysts are rating the stock a Moderate Buy and see a healthy upside in the stock. The few commentaries that have come out are all accompanied by positive sentiment although they’ve all lowered their price targets. The range of the latest four targets is $630 to $700 compared to the broad consensus of $675 which is 35% above the most recent price action. The takeaway from the commentaries is that Broadcom is well-positioned within the semiconductor market and supported by strong demand in data-center, cloud, and infrastructure end-markets.
"While we do not expect [Broadcom] to remain totally immune from rising macro headwinds, we believe they can weather the situation better than most due to a consistent scrubbing of backlog to ensure shipments are only matching 'true demand', long lead-times on non-cancellable orders, and heavy infrastructure exposure," says Ross Seymore of Deutsche Bank.
Broadcom Bottoms On Strong Results, Guidance
Broadcom had a strong FQ3 and one that bodes well for the chip sector at large, as well. The company reports $8.46 billion in net revenue for a gain of 25% over last year. The revenue growth not only beat the consensus estimates by 60 basis points but also accelerated from the prior quarter and came with favorable guidance. The strength was driven by semiconductor sales which grew by 78% YOY and were offset by a smaller 23% gain in Software sales.
Moving down to the earnings, the company’s net income margin expanded about 900 basis points to drive solid results on the bottom line as well. The company reported $9.73 in adjusted EPS which is up 40% from last year and beat the consensus by $0.18 as well. Turning to the guidance, the company is expecting Q4 revenue and earnings well above the pre-release consensus and there is upside risk in the outlook.
"We expect solid demand across our end markets to continue in the fourth quarter, reflecting continued investment by our customers of next-generation technologies in data centers, broadband, and wireless," Hock Tan, President, and CEO of Broadcom said in a statement.
Broadcom Is A Value And A High-Yield
Broadcom isn’t the highest yielding stock in the chip sector, that’s Intel (NASDAQ: INTC), but it is a high-yield relative to its peers and the broad market and it offers a discount trading at only 13X its earnings. The company is also a dividend grower and one that is well on track to become a Dividend Aristocrat although it will be a few years before that happens. Until then, investors can sleep well at night trusting in the 3.28% yield, 46% payout ratio, and the 10-year history of consecutive distribution increases.
The Technical Outlook: Broadcom To Trend Sideways
Shares of Broadcom look ready to bounce but that is within a trading range that will most likely keep the market moving sideways over the next few quarters. Support appears to be strong near $485 which was the previous resistance and is now a key level for the market to watch. If the price action does not hold up at this level a move down to $470 or $440 is possible.