
Spectrum Brands’s 35.3% return over the past six months has outpaced the S&P 500 by 30.4%, and its stock price has climbed to $88.80 per share. This was partly due to its solid quarterly results, and the run-up might have investors contemplating their next move.
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Why Do We Think Spectrum Brands Will Underperform?
Despite the momentum, we don’t have much confidence in Spectrum Brands. Here are three reasons we avoid SPB, plus one stock we’d rather own.
1. Core Business Falling Behind as Organic Sales Decline
When analyzing revenue growth, we care most about organic revenue growth. This metric captures a business’s performance excluding one-time events such as mergers, acquisitions, and divestitures as well as foreign currency fluctuations.
Spectrum Brands’s demand has been falling over the last eight quarters, and on average, its organic sales have declined by 1.2% year on year. 
2. Projected Revenue Growth Is Slim
Forecasted revenues by Wall Street analysts signal a company’s potential. Predictions may not always be accurate, but accelerating growth typically boosts valuation multiples and stock prices while slowing growth does the opposite.
Over the next 12 months, sell-side analysts expect Spectrum Brands’s revenue to rise by 1.6%. Although this projection suggests its newer products will spur better top-line performance, it is still below average for the sector.
3. Previous Growth Initiatives Haven’t Paid Off Yet
Growth gives us insight into a company’s long-term potential, but how capital-efficient was that growth? A company’s ROIC explains this by showing how much operating profit it makes compared to the money it has raised (debt and equity).
Spectrum Brands historically did a mediocre job investing in profitable growth initiatives. Its five-year average ROIC was 1%, lower than the typical cost of capital (how much it costs to raise money) for consumer staples companies.

Final Judgment
Spectrum Brands doesn’t pass our quality test. With its shares beating the market recently, the stock trades at 18.4× forward P/E (or $88.80 per share). This multiple tells us a lot of good news is priced in - you can find more timely opportunities elsewhere. We’d recommend looking at one of our top software and edge computing picks.
Stocks We Would Buy Instead of Spectrum Brands
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