UKG: “Blue-Collar Boomerang” Expected in 2023

• How January workforce activity levels¹ at U.S. businesses remain unchanged (0.0%) from December to January and why this is significant;
• Business sectors showing strength and weakness by industry, such as healthcare (-0.4%); manufacturing (0.6%); retail, foodservice, and hospitality (-2.9%); and services and distribution (0.4%); and by size segment, including large and small businesses;
• An outlook on layoffs and why workforce reductions concentrated in some white-collar sectors may ultimately help ease the labor shortage.

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Dave Gilbertson, vice president, UKG

“January delivered calm to the labor market after a December dip in workforce activity. Layoffs aren’t widespread and continue to be concentrated in predominantly white-collar sectors. Overall, demand for employees, especially for frontline and hourly roles, remains strong. We expect to see a ‘Blue-Collar Boomerang,’ as recently laid off white-collar and salary workers take up well-paying, highly skilled frontline jobs in the year to come, further easing the labor shortage.”

The UKG Workforce Activity Report is a high-frequency index analyzing shift work trends across 4.2 million people at 35,000 U.S. businesses to understand the economy. Reports are published and briefings are held each Tuesday prior to the publication of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Employment Situation (monthly jobs) report. Upcoming schedule:

• February Workforce Activity Report: March 7, 2023
• March Workforce Activity Report: April 4, 2023
• April Workforce Activity Report: May 2, 2023

Footnote 1: “Shifts worked” is a total derived from aggregated employee time and attendance data and reflects the number of times that employees, especially those who are paid hourly or must be physically present at a workplace to perform their jobs, “clock in” and “clock out” via a timeclock, mobile app, computer, or other device at the beginning and end of each shift.