Reaching 70% attainment across all demographic groups would add $4.4 trillion to state economy, strengthen workforce pipelines, grow family incomes

California could generate $4.4 trillion in economic gains over the next 50 years – equal to $214,000 per working-age adult – if the state raises attainment of valuable postsecondary credentials, degrees and certificates to 70% across all demographic groups, according to a major new report released today by the Georgetown University Center on Education and the Workforce (CEW) with College Futures Foundation.

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San Francisco Bay Area’s Rivet School provides wraparound support to learners pursuing a bachelor's degree.

The report, The Golden Ticket: How Raising Postsecondary Attainment Rates to 70 Percent for All Demographic Groups Would Unlock Decades of Prosperity in California, found that strategic investment in education and workforce pathways tied to real labor market need would produce significant gains for more workers, families and communities across California.

The research underscores that the path to prosperity is not limited to four-year degrees. Much of the projected economic benefit would come from increasing access to associate’s degrees, industry-recognized certificates and other credentials of value that connect Californians to in-demand careers, family-supporting wages and upward mobility in the very communities in which they live.

“California is looking at a $4.4 trillion opportunity, but it will not be captured through the same old structures of the current higher ed system,” said Eloy Ortiz Oakley, president and CEO of College Futures Foundation. “We need all secondary leaders and employers working together to identify the credentials that matter most in each region - whether in the skilled trades, healthcare, technology, teaching or advanced professional professionals - and create clearer pathways for working learners to earn them.”

Oakley said that for millions of Californians, reaching this threshold means better-paying jobs, higher earnings, greater stability and a real shot at economic mobility. “It means restoring the belief that education can still lead to a better future and something we call The California Dream,” he said, noting a 70% attainment goal by 2035 was set by Gov. Newsom but did not include the “for all demographic groups” distinction that College Futures' target does.

Working Adults Must Be at the Center

The report emphasizes that educating recent high school graduates alone will not be enough. California must also create more flexible and responsive pathways for working adults, parents and mid-career learners who make up a major share of the state’s workforce and learner population.

Many Californians are seeking education and training options that fit around jobs, caregiving and real-life responsibilities, yet too often encounter systems designed for a different era.

Zack Mabel, lead author and director of research at CEW, said, “Importantly, although bachelor’s degrees would deliver the highest total monetary gains overall, attainment gains at all levels would be transformational.”

In fact, Mabel added, even if all new credential holders earned only non-degree credentials, such as occupational licenses and certifications, or solely associates degrees, the anticipated impact would still reach $4 trillion. The research modeled potential gains across all postsecondary levels to reach this finding.

Key Findings from The Golden Ticket

• $4.4 trillion windfall: Achieving 70% attainment statewide would generate $4.4 trillion in net gains over 50 years.
• $214,000 per adult: Equivalent to $214,000 for every working-age adult.
• An Inland Empire boon: More than $1 trillion in monetary impact would be generated by Inland Empire residents if 70% of working-age adults across all demographic groups earned a degree, certificate, or other valuable credential.
• Investment will pay: The Golden Ticket study suggests we can generate $4.4 trillion for California’s economy with a $198 billion public investment in postsecondary education. That’s a 22x return.
• Immediate return on investment: After five years of major investment, California would see average annual net gains of $65.5 billion over the next five years through higher earnings, increased tax revenues, economic expansion and reduced public spending.
• Credentials of all types pay dividends: The projected gains would approach $4 trillion—or more—if all demographic groups achieved a 70% attainment rate solely through gains in certificate, associate’s degree, or bachelor’s degree completion.
• Equity as an economic imperative: Broad-based inclusion would nearly close attainment gaps for Hispanic and Latino Californians, who currently have among the lowest attainment rates, and account for $4.2 trillion of the total projected impact.

The report also notes that by the end of the decade, nearly three out of four jobs in California are expected to require education or training beyond high school, making workforce readiness a pressing economic priority.

“California’s future competitiveness depends on whether we connect more people to credentials that lead to real opportunity,” Oakley said. “We cannot build tomorrow’s economy with yesterday’s model, specifically the arcane Master Plan for Education. The challenge before all of us is to create systems that reflect the learners of today and tomorrow, not the learners of 50 years ago.”

A Call to Action Across California

Alongside CEW’s release of this report, College Futures Foundation issued a challenge through its campaign, Our Golden Ticket to Rebuilding the California Dream, to leaders across sectors from around the state to come together to ensure no learners and communities are left out of this economic opportunity. Oakley stressed that coordinated action is required from employers, postsecondary leaders, regional leaders, policymakers and the next governor to modernize pathways, create career onramps and invest in attainment strategies aligned with workforce needs and capable of delivering the gains the report forecasts.

“This is California’s work, and California’s moment,” Oakley said. “If we can reimagine systems that create more value for more learners in more places, we will not only strengthen this state – we can set the standard for the nation.”

About College Futures Foundation

At College Futures Foundation, we believe in the power of postsecondary opportunity. We believe that securing the postsecondary success of students facing the most formidable barriers will ensure that all of us can thrive—our communities, our economy, and our state. We believe that the equitable education system of the future, one that enables every learner to achieve their dreams and participate in an inclusive and robust economy, will be realized if we are focused, determined, and active in our leadership and partnership.

View Georgetown University Center on Education and the Workforce press release here. View full report here.

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