What Happened?
Shares of tax preparation company H&R Block (NYSE: HRB) jumped 3% in the afternoon session after investors wagered geopolitical tension would be contained following the U.S. military's operation in Venezuela, with the Dow hitting a fresh record.
Sentiment remained firmly "risk-on" for early 2026, with Wall Street prioritizing domestic economic strength over foreign turbulence. Analysts noted that while the event raises short-term supply questions, the market largely viewed the potential stabilization of Venezuela's vast oil reserves as a long-term economic positive.
The shares closed the day at $43.71, up 2.6% from previous close.
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What Is The Market Telling Us
H&R Block’s shares are not very volatile and have only had 5 moves greater than 5% over the last year. In that context, today’s move indicates the market considers this news meaningful, although it might not be something that would fundamentally change its perception of the business.
The biggest move we wrote about over the last year was 5 months ago when the stock dropped 6% on the news that the company reported mixed second-quarter results, as an earnings miss and weaker-than-expected guidance for the upcoming fiscal year overshadowed a slight revenue beat.
The tax preparation company posted adjusted earnings per share of $2.27, well below analyst expectations of $2.83. Although revenue came in slightly ahead of forecasts at $1.11 billion, the focus remained on profitability. The earnings miss was partly due to a one-time tax benefit of $0.50 per share being pushed to the next quarter. Looking ahead, H &R Block's earnings forecast for fiscal 2026 of $4.85 to $5.00 per share also fell short of consensus estimates.
H&R Block is up 2.6% since the beginning of the year, but at $43.71 per share, it is still trading 30.7% below its 52-week high of $63.04 from April 2025. Investors who bought $1,000 worth of H&R Block’s shares 5 years ago would now be looking at an investment worth $2,761.
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