The United Nations 2024 World Population Prospects Report, a crucial document for understanding the future of our planet, indicates that the global population will reach nearly 8.2 billion by 2024. Over the next 60 years, it is expected to increase by 2 billion, peaking at approximately 10.3 billion in the mid-2080s.
New York, NY (Merxwire) – The global population is projected to reach a peak of 10.3 billion by 2080, after which it will decline. The rate of decrease is expected to be 700 million less than the previous decade’s projections. Consequently, the world is experiencing an accelerated rate of population ageing. Studies indicate that by the late 2070s, the population aged 65 and over will reach 2.2 billion, surpassing those under 18.
The United Nations Population Fund states that global population changes are uneven, and demographic structures continually evolve. Some regions are experiencing rapid population growth, while others face rapid ageing. This makes reliable demographic data more critical than ever.
Demographics have changed dramatically in recent years, with birth rates declining more than expected in many countries, such as China. Over the past 30 years, China has been the most populous country in the world. To slow down the population growth rate, the government has implemented the one-child policy and other birth control policies, which is why the current population growth has slowed down or even regressed.
Despite recent government initiatives across China to encourage births, the trend of population decline persists. The rate of newborns cannot keep pace with the ageing population. The United Nations estimates that China’s population growth has peaked and will continue to decline. In addition to China, the United Nations identifies 63 other countries where population growth has peaked, including Russia, Japan, and Germany. Additionally, fifty more countries, such as Brazil, Iran, and Turkey, will join this group within the next 30 years.
Japan faces the most severe ageing population issue. Statistics show Japan’s population has been shrinking for 13 consecutive years, with a record-high proportion of older adults and the highest ageing index globally.
In contrast to these countries, some nations are experiencing population growth. Following China, India is rapidly growing due to improvements in healthcare, increased birth rates, and decreased infant mortality rates. As of April 2023, India officially surpassed China to become the most populous country, with over 40% of its population under 25. The United Nations is optimistic that India’s population will continue to grow beyond 2054. Countries like Indonesia, Nigeria, Pakistan, and the United States will experience similar trends.
Whether populations increase or decrease, UN Secretary-General António Guterres emphasizes that ‘every person matters.’ Population numbers profoundly impact economic development, employment, income distribution, poverty, and social security. They also significantly affect healthcare, education, housing, sanitation, water, food, and energy access. Guterres calls for attention to the human rights implications of population increases on women, children, and vulnerable groups in many regions, underlining the gravity of the situation.
